2026 congressional forecast
One hundred equally likely points
Three ways to walk through the election forecast.
Every point on each line is equally likely. The width of each band is the chance of that outcome. Move one slider to see the same possible election night in all three views.
Senate seats
How many Senate seats do Democrats win?
Silver Bulletin Deluxe
August 14, 2026
Exact seat outcomes across the model’s 40,000 simulations, with only the low-probability tails grouped together.
This point lands on
51 Democratic Senate seats
About 14% of modeled outcomes
Rounded to whole percentile points from the Deluxe histogram. The source topline is 56.4% Democratic control.
House seats
How many House seats do Democrats win?
Silver Bulletin Deluxe
August 14, 2026
The same idea, with individual seat counts collected into six readable ranges.
This point lands on
230–239 Democratic House seats
About 26% of modeled outcomes
Grouped from the Deluxe seat histogram and rounded to whole percentile points. The source topline is 86.2% Democratic control.
Control of Congress
Who controls the two chambers?
Silver Bulletin Deluxe
August 14, 2026
The joint forecast reduced to the three outcomes that fit naturally on a Democratic-to-Republican line.
This point lands on
Democratic sweep
Democrats control the House and Senate · About 56% of modeled outcomes
Rounded from 56.1%, 30.1%, and 13.5%. The 0.4% Republican House + Democratic Senate outcome is deliberately omitted.